C5 - Econometric Modeling
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Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices
The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation. -
Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies
The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel. -
Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion
Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts. -
The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity. -
Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada
The authors address empirically the implications of structural breaks in the variance-covariance matrix of inflation and import prices for changes in pass-through. -
Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?
The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts. -
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. -
Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth. -
Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics: Evidence from a Two-Dimensional Labour Supply Model with Money
The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data.