C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
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An Evaluation of MLE in a Model of the Nonlinear Continuous-Time Short-Term Interest Rate
The author compares the performance of three Gaussian approximation methods - by Nowman (1997), Shoji and Ozaki (1998), and Yu and Phillips (2001) - in estimating a model of the nonlinear continuous-time short-term interest rate. -
Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process
A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function. -
Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification-Robust Econometric Analysis
The authors use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. -
The U.S. New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Empirical Assessment
The authors examine the evidence presented by Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001, 2003) that the inflation dynamics in the United States can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). -
Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods
The authors use simple new finite-sample methods to test the empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. -
Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts. -
Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output
The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions. -
A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Government of Canada's Debt Strategy
Debt strategy is defined as the manner in which a government finances an excess of government expenditures over revenues and any maturing debt issued in previous periods. The author gives a thorough qualitative description of the complexities of debt strategy analysis and then demonstrates that it is, in fact, a problem in stochastic optimal control. -
Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach
The author evaluates the ability of a variety of output-gap estimators to accurately measure the output gap in a model economy. A small estimated model of the Canadian economy is used to generate artificial data.