Staff research

• The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2002-22 Brigitte Desroches, Marc-André Gosselin

  This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, E27

• Entrepreneurial Risk, Credit Constraints, and the Corporate Income Tax: A Quantitative Exploration

  Staff Working Paper 2002-21 Césaire Meh

  This paper describes the positive effect that corporate income tax has on capital formation in the presence of liquidity constraints and uninsurable risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E6, E62, H, H2, H20, H23

• Evaluating the Quarterly Projection Model: A Preliminary Investigation

  Staff Working Paper 2002-20 Robert Amano, Kim McPhail, Hope Pioro, Andrew Rennison

  This paper summarizes the results of recent research evaluating the Bank of Canada's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17, E3, E30, E37

• The Financial Services Sector: An Update on Recent Developments

  Technical Report No. 91 Charles Freedman, Clyde Goodlet

  The Canadian financial industry continues to experience significant changes. This report provides an update on recent developments and re-examines a number of issues facing financial service providers that were identified in Technical Report No. 82.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2

• Dollarization in Canada: The Buck Stops There

  Technical Report No. 90 John Murray, James Powell

  The sharp depreciation of the Canadian dollar and the successful launch of the euro have spawned an animated debate in Canada concerning the potential benefits of formally adopting the U.S. dollar as our national currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F3, F33, F36

• Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom

  Staff Working Paper 2002-19 Hashmat Khan, Zhenhua Zhu

  Mankiw and Reis (2001a) have proposed a "sticky-information"-based Phillips curve (SIPC) to address some of the concerns with the "sticky-price"-based new Keynesian Phillips curve.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data

  Staff Working Paper 2002-18 Kevin Moran, Veronika Dolar

  This paper applies the hybrid dynamic general-equilibrium, vector autoregressive (DGE-VAR) model developed by Ireland (1999) to Canadian time series.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37

• Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?

  Staff Working Paper 2002-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Robert Lafrance, Jean-François Perrault

  Previous studies on whether the nature of the exchange rate regime influences a country's medium-term growth performance have been based on a tripartite classification scheme that distinguishes between pegged, intermediate, and flexible exchange rate regimes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F33, F4, F43, O, O4, O40

• A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2002-16 Chris D'Souza

  This paper clarifies the role and the impact of foreign exchange dealers in the relationship between foreign exchange intervention and nominal exchange rates using a unique dataset that disaggregates trades by dealer and by type of trade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G14, G2, G21

• Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2002-15 Zhiwei Zhang

  This paper examines the predictive power of credit spreads from the corporate bond market. The high-yield bond spread and investment-grade spread can explain 68 per cent and 42 per cent of output variations one year ahead, while the term spread based on government debts can explain only 12 per cent of them.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, G, G1