March 4, 2003
Uncategorized
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Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods
Postulating two different specifications for the Canadian Phillips curve (a purely backwardlooking model, and a partly backward-, partly forward-looking model), the authors test for structural breaks in the parameters of the equation. In each case, they account for the possibilities that: (i) breaks can be discrete, or continuous, and (ii) available data samples may be too small to justify using asymptotically valid structural-change tests. -
Valuation of Canadian- vs. U.S.-Listed Equity: Is There a Discount?
The authors examine how the valuation multiples assigned to the equity of Canadian-listed firms compare with the equity of comparable firms listed in the United States. They find that Canadian-listed firms trade at a discount to U.S.-listed firms across a range of valuation measures. -
February 26, 2003
Bank of Canada Announces First Research Fellowship Awards
The Bank of Canada today announced the first two fellowship awards for 2003 under its Fellowship Program launched late last year. -
February 18, 2003
Government of Canada Debt Programs - Follow up to Change in Debt Structure Announced in 2003 Budget
As announced in the 2003 Budget, the Government will gradually reduce the fixed-rate portion of the debt from two-thirds to 60 per cent. The reduction will begin in the upcoming fiscal year and will be implemented in an orderly and transparent manner over the next five years to maintain a well-functioning Government of Canada securities market. -
Shift Contagion in Asset Markets
The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called "shift contagion." -
Are Distorted Beliefs Too Good to be True?
In a recent attempt to account for the equity-premium puzzle within a representative-agent model, Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark (2000) relax the assumption of rational expectations and in its place use the assumption of distorted beliefs. The author shows that the explanatory power of the distorted beliefs model is due to an inconsistency in the model and that an attempt to remove this inconsistency removes the model's explanatory power. -
Money in the Bank (of Canada)
With the demise of monetary targeting over the past 20 years in many major countries, the question has arisen as to whether central banks should look at money at all when formulating and conducting monetary policy. -
January 30, 2003
Annual Report 2002
In the year just ended, the global economy faced a number of exceptional challenges, reflecting a wide range of economic, financial, and geopolitical risks and uncertainties. These included the fallout from the September 2001 terrorist attacks, corporate accounting scandals, stock market volatility, and developments in the Middle East. Despite this global backdrop, the Canadian economy outperformed virtually all other industrial economies, growing by about 3 1/4 per cent and creating 560,000 jobs, while inflation expectations remained well anchored to the Bank of Canada’s 2 per cent inflation-control target.
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January 29, 2003
Monetary Policy: Meeting the Challenges of an Uncertain World
I'll discuss what's happening to prices in the economy and how Canada's macroeconomic policy framework protects it from the risks of persistent inflation or deflation. Finally, I will update our outlook for the Canadian economy.