The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation
The rise in inflation in 2021–22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages.
Oleksiy Kryvtsov - Latest
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Has the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics
From 2011 to 2019, inflation in Canada and advanced economies usually registered below inflation targets, spurring the debate on whether the inflation process has changed. This paper highlights emerging questions that will influence the conduct of monetary policy in Canada in the near term. -
Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits
This note examines the merits of monetary policy adjustments in response to financial stability concerns, taking into account changes in the state of knowledge since the renewal of the inflation-targeting agreement in 2011. A key financial system vulnerability in Canada is elevated household indebtedness: as more and more households are nearing their debt-capacity limits, the likelihood and severity of a large negative correction in housing markets are also increasing.