Monetary policy framework and transmission

• Recent Evidence on the Resiliency of Flexible Inflation Targeting

  Staff analytical paper 2026-23 Edoardo Briganti, Wei Dong, Olena Kostyshyna, Soyoung Lee, Florent Samson, Rodrigo Sekkel

  This paper assesses the resilience of flexible inflation targeting in the presence of large and persistent supply shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• Optimal Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Mix

  Staff working paper 2026-18 Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca, Kostas Mavromatis

  We show that in a heterogeneous economy, optimal policy after cost-push shocks raises short-term rates to curb inflation while lowering long-term rates to support indebted households, speeding investment and output recovery while increasing consumption inequality.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation

• Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2026 update

  Staff analytical paper 2026-21 Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Jan David Schneider, Eugene Trostin, Argyn Toktamyssov, Hannes Twieling

  We assess the Canadian nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from our assessment in 2025. We assess the US nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.50% to 3.50%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.25% to 3.25% reported in the 2025 assessment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• Communicating the Future Direction of Policy

  Staff analytical paper 2026-16 Jonathan Witmer, Monica Jain

  This note discusses several ways the BoC could increase communication around future policy, leveraging methods other central banks have used, and discussing the pros and cons of each method for the BoC, keeping in mind that policy rate forecasts typically are not informative beyond 1 or 2 quarters.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation

• Inflation vs Inclusion: Stabilization Policy in the Wake of the Pandemic

  Staff working paper 2026-13 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante

  As the economy emerges from a crisis, macroeconomic policy confronts a dilemma: a protracted stimulus can foster a more inclusive labor market recovery, yet risks igniting inflation that ultimately undermines workers’ welfare through real income erosion. This tension amplifies in the presence of the ZLB and aggregate capacity constraints. We embed this insight into a quantitative model of the US economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J24, J6, J64 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• The Impact of Mortgage Interest Costs on Rental Inflation Amid Population Growth

  Staff analytical paper 2026-14 Amina Enkhbold, Serdar Kabaca

  This note finds evidence of a positive and nonlinear relationship between mortgage interest costs (MIC) and rental inflation: the impact of MIC on rents is small when population growth is near its historical norm, but significantly stronger during periods of rapid population growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty

  Staff working paper 2026-12 Anastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev, Celine Poilly

  Recessions feature elevated uncertainty. We develop a nonlinear imperfect-information New Keynesian model where procyclical information quality generates endogenous countercyclical uncertainty and precautionary saving. This demand channel can overturn the inflationary impact of negative supply shocks, making them deflationary, unless monetary policy stabilizes the output gap.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, D83, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• Measuring how financial sector economists respond to the tone of Bank of Canada communications

  

  Sparks at Bank article Amanda Wang, Xu Zhang, Xinfen Han

  The words central banks use to explain policy decisions matter. They can, in some cases, affect financial markets just like changes in policy interest rates do. For this reason, we built a tool to track the tone of the Bank of Canada’s policy communications and assess how tone affects market perceptions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation

• The rise in the Canadian term premium in a global context

  

  Sparks at Bank article Eugene Trostin, James Ketcheson, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  In Canada and abroad, yields on long-term government bonds have stayed high even as policy interest rates have fallen. This is due to rising term premiums―the extra compensation investors demand for holding these bonds. A key factor driving higher term premiums is global concerns about the ability of markets to absorb substantial amounts of government debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• Macro News in Market Moves: Classifying News through Asset Co-movements

  Staff analytical paper 2026-7 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Rishi Vala

  This paper introduces CLONE, a method that decomposes asset price movements into aggregate demand, productivity, inflation, and monetary policy news, using stocks, bonds, and inflation swaps. CLONE simplicity and forward-looking focus helps guide policymakers in determining the economic drivers behind asset price movements.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission