Research
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Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?
The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts. -
The 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program in Retrospect
The author provides an overview of the 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program (AIP), in a background document prepared for a seminar organized by the Bank of Canada to mark the AIP's 30th anniversary. -
Order Submission: The Choice between Limit and Market Orders
Most financial markets allow investors to submit both limit and market orders, but it is not always clear what affects the choice of order type. -
Modelling and Forecasting Housing Investment: The Case of Canada
The author proposes and evaluates econometric models that try to explain and forecast real quarterly housing expenditures in Canada. Structural and leading-indicator models of the Canadian housing sector are described. -
Subordinated Debt and Market Discipline in Canada
The author documents the use by Canadian banks of subordinated debt (SD) as a capital instrument. -
Measurement Bias in the Canadian Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index (CPI) is the most commonly used measure of inflation in Canada. -
An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia
Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. -
Quantity, Quality, and Relevance: Central Bank Research, 1990–2003
The authors document the research output of 34 central banks from 1990 to 2003, and use proxies of research inputs to measure the research productivity of central banks over this period. -
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection.