Inflation and prices

• Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-18 Alexander Lam

  US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, F, F1, F10, F13, F14
• June 18, 2025

  The impact of US trade policy on jobs and inflation in Canada

  Remarks Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the trade conflict with the United States has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is critical for jobs and growth, and important for prices and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• June 18, 2025

  Trade, jobs and inflation

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the trade conflict with the United States and how it is has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is important for jobs, growth and price stability in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• June 11, 2025

  What is a tariff?

  A tariff is a tax on imports from another country. It can increase the prices consumers and businesses pay for that good.

  Content Type(s): Explainers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics
• March 20, 2025

  Navigating tariff uncertainty

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the US trade conflict and uncertainty is hurting business and consumer confidence. He also outlines what the Bank is doing to ensure the trade conflict doesn’t cause widespread or persistent inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• March 20, 2025

  Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the Canadian economy

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how uncertainty about the trade war with the United States has shaken businesses and consumer confidence. He also reiterates that the Bank of Canada must ensure that high prices from tariffs do not lead to ongoing inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• March 10, 2025

  Price check: Inflation in Canada

  Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy, Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  Why prices change, and what it means for the economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability

• Natural disasters and inflation in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-8 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes

  How do storms, floods and wildfires affect consumer prices? In the short term, natural disasters can significantly increase volatility in Canada-wide inflation. Over the long term, natural disasters influence inflation in shelter prices, especially when provincial output is already weak relative to trend.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q5, Q54

• Markups, Pass-Through, and Firm Heterogeneity with Sequentially Mixed Search

  Staff Working Paper 2025-7 Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham

  Market power and pass-through of cost and demand shocks are studied in a market with free entry of heterogeneous firms and consumer mixed search. Equilibrium prices and markups are driven by variation in the elasticity of demand across firms. Improved conditions for buyers can either raise or lower market power.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
• February 6, 2025

  Structural change, supply shocks and hard choices

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Bank for International Settlements Mexico City, Mexico

  In panel remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem highlights the challenges ahead and discusses the role of monetary policy in a world with more structural change and supply shocks.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments