Inflation and prices

• March 20, 2025

  Navigating tariff uncertainty

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the US trade conflict and uncertainty is hurting business and consumer confidence. He also outlines what the Bank is doing to ensure the trade conflict doesn’t cause widespread or persistent inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• March 20, 2025

  Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the Canadian economy

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how uncertainty about the trade war with the United States has shaken businesses and consumer confidence. He also reiterates that the Bank of Canada must ensure that high prices from tariffs do not lead to ongoing inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• March 10, 2025

  Price check: Inflation in Canada

  Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy, Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  Why prices change, and what it means for the economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability

• Natural disasters and inflation in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-8 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes

  How do storms, floods and wildfires affect consumer prices? In the short term, natural disasters can significantly increase volatility in Canada-wide inflation. Over the long term, natural disasters influence inflation in shelter prices, especially when provincial output is already weak relative to trend.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q5, Q54

• Markups, Pass-Through, and Firm Heterogeneity with Sequentially Mixed Search

  Staff Working Paper 2025-7 Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham

  Market power and pass-through of cost and demand shocks are studied in a market with free entry of heterogeneous firms and consumer mixed search. Equilibrium prices and markups are driven by variation in the elasticity of demand across firms. Improved conditions for buyers can either raise or lower market power.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
• February 6, 2025

  Structural change, supply shocks and hard choices

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Bank for International Settlements Mexico City, Mexico

  In panel remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem highlights the challenges ahead and discusses the role of monetary policy in a world with more structural change and supply shocks.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments

• Anchored Inflation Expectations: What Recent Data Reveal

  Staff Working Paper 2025-5 Olena Kostyshyna, Isabelle Salle, Hung Truong

  We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study how inflation expectations form over the business cycle. We provide new insights into how households form expectations, documenting that forecasting behaviours, attention and noise in beliefs vary across socio-demographic groups and correlate with views about monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E70

• Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2024-51 Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger

  We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Consumer Search, Productivity Heterogeneity, Prices, Markups, and Pass-through: Theory and Estimation

  Staff Working Paper 2024-50 Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham

  We develop and estimate a search model in which identical consumers trade with price-setting firms that differ in productivity. We use the estimated model to characterize the qualitative and quantitative differences in prices and markups across firms. We explore how individual firms respond to changes in cost and demand and how they pass these through to their prices and markup.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Service sector JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, L, L1, L16
• December 16, 2024

  Lessons for the future

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia

  In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses what the Bank of Canada learned from the pandemic experience and outlines how the Bank is preparing for a more uncertain future.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework