Credit and credit aggregates
-
-
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy
This paper introduces heterogeneous beliefs among households in a small open economy model for the Canadian economy. The model suggests that simultaneous boom-bust cycles in house prices, output, investment, consumption and hours worked emerge when credit-constrained mortgage borrowers expect that future house prices will rise and this expectation is neither shared by savers nor realized ex-post. -
On the Amplification Role of Collateral Constraints
Following the seminal contribution of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), the role of collateral constraints for business cycle fluctuations has been highlighted by several authors and collateralized debt is becoming a popular feature of business cycle models. -
June 16, 2008
A Money and Credit Real-Time Database for Canada
Model-based forecasts of important economic variables are part of the range of information considered for monetary policy decision making. -
Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada
Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. -
A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy
This paper considers a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy and finds that an improvement in the terms of trade causes a housing boom-bust cycle if the duration of the improvement is uncertain. -
Should Central Banks Adjust Their Target Horizons in Response to House-Price Bubbles?
The authors investigate the implications of house-price bubbles for the optimal inflation-target horizon using a dynamic general-equilibrium model with credit frictions, house-price bubbles, and small open-economy features. They find that, given the distribution of shocks and inflation persistence over the past 25 years, the optimal target horizon for Canada tends to be at the lower […] -
October 8, 2006
Modelling Financial Channels for Monetary Policy Analysis
The Bank of Canada considers a wide range of information and analysis before making a monetary policy decision and uses carefully articulated models to produce economic projections and to examine alternative scenarios. This article describes an ongoing research agenda at the Bank to develop models in which financial variables play an active role in the transmission of monetary policy actions to economic activity. Such models can help to analyze information from the financial side of the economy and to provide an overall view of the implications of financial developments for the current economic outlook. The authors also explain how this research can help address other issues relevant to the objectives of monetary policy, including how asset-price movements should be taken into account in the monetary policy framework. -
Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies
Two models of default risk are prominent in the financial literature: Merton's structural model and Altman's non-structural model. -
Money and Credit Factors
The authors introduce new measures of important underlying macroeconomic phenomena that affect the financial side of the economy.