Business fluctuations and cycles

• Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model

  Staff Working Paper 2006-4 Ali Dib, Mohamed Gammoudi, Kevin Moran

  The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E3, E32, E37

• MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

  Technical Report No. 96 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

• Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-33 Ramdane Djoudad, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics: Evidence from a Two-Dimensional Labour Supply Model with Money

  Staff Working Paper 2005-30 Ali Dib, Louis Phaneuf

  The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J2, J22

• Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-29 Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei

  Several empirical studies suggest that exchange rate pass-through has declined in recent years in industrialized countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4

• Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-15 Hafedh Bouakez, Takashi Kano

  In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, J, J2, J22

• Self-Enforcing Labour Contracts and the Dynamics Puzzle

  Staff Working Paper 2005-1 Christian Calmès

  To properly account for the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables, researchers incorporate various internal-propagation mechanisms in their models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E4, E49, J, J3, J30, J31, J4, J41

• Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni

  Staff Working Paper 2004-46 Charles St-Arnaud

  The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E23, E3, E32

• Prévision et analyse de la production manufacturière au Canada : comparaison de modèles linéaires et non linéaires

  Staff Working Paper 2004-40 Frédérick Demers

  In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53

• Finance Constraints and Inventory Investment: Empirical Tests with Panel Data

  Staff Working Paper 2004-38 Rose Cunningham

  The author empirically tests two aspects of the interaction between financial variables and inventory investment: negative cash flow and finance constraints due to asymmetric information.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, G, G1, G14