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Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne

Staff Working Paper 1998-21 René Lalonde, Jennifer Page, Pierre St-Amant
This study introduces a new method for identifying the output gap, based on the estimation of multivariate autoregression (VAR) models. This approach, which involves using restrictions to identify structural shocks that have only a transitory effect on output but that affect the trend inflation rate, is compared with the decomposition method proposed by Blanchard and […]
November 19, 1998

Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

Opening statement Gordon Thiessen Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce
Mr. Chairman, my colleagues and I always welcome our appearances before your committee. We released our latest Monetary Policy Report this past Monday. It covers a broad range of economic and monetary issues and provides an account of our policy actions and their results. The ultimate objective of Canadian monetary policy is to help create […]
November 17, 1998

Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

Opening statement Gordon Thiessen House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance
Mr. Chairman, my colleagues and I welcome these appearances before your committee following each edition of the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report. As you know, we published our latest report yesterday. It touches on a wide range of economic and monetary issues and provides an opportunity for us to account for our policy actions […]
November 16, 1998

Release of the Monetary Policy Report

Opening statement Gordon Thiessen
This morning we released our eighth Monetary Policy Report. The period since our last report has certainly been an eventful one from a monetary policy perspective. During the past six months, global economic uncertainties intensified, particularly following Russia's decision in August to declare a debt moratorium. Many emerging market countries were faced with large capital […]
November 14, 1998

Lower inflation: Benefits and costs

The federal government and the Bank of Canada have been committed for some time to achieving and maintaining price stability as a way to foster a rising standard of living for all Canadians. To support this objective, the inflation-control target range of 1 to 3 per cent was recently extended through to the end of 2001. By then, the government and the Bank plan to announce a long-run target for monetary policy. In this article, the authors provide an overview of the most recent empirical evidence on the benefits of lower inflation. They draw on an extensive earlier survey and on work presented at two recent conferences on price stability hosted by the Bank of Canada. They find that, when inflation and tax interactions are taken into account, there are large benefits to lowering inflation. When these benefits are compared with the transitional costs associated with lowering inflation, significant positive benefits remain. However, the authors note that the extension of the inflation-control targets to the end of 2001 allows further research to ensure an operational definition of price stability that will help Canadians achieve a high standard of living.
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