A Simple Multivariate Filter for the Measurement of Potential Output Technical Report No. 59 Douglas Laxton, Robert Tetlow This paper examines techniques that have been used to estimate potential output and finds them wanting. We suggest a simple multivariate-filtering technique that is a generalization of the Hodrick-Prescott univariate filter. In univariate filters, only information about a variable itself is used in eliminating noise in order to obtain an estimate of the underlying trend. […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, E, E2
Government Debt in an Open Economy Technical Report No. 58 Douglas Laxton, Robert Tetlow This paper introduces the CORE model, a prototype for a new quarterly model of the Canadian economy, designed for projections and policy analysis with focus beyond the very short run. The model has a clearly defined equilibrium and explicit adjustment mechanisms, primarily through relative prices, that are dynamically stable. Overlaid on a neo-classical growth model […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, F, F3, F32, H, H3, H30, H6, H60
Wage and Price Dynamics in Canada Technical Report No. 56 Barry Cozier This paper examines wage and price dynamics in Canada with a view towards testing the implications of a wage-price dynamics, according to which unit labour costs are determined by a wage Phillips curve while prices are set as a markup over unit labour costs. This model is compared to an alternative model in which excess […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C52, E, E2, E24, E3, E31
The Structure of the Small Annual Model Technical Report No. 40 David Rose, Jack Selody This volume contains a detailed description of the structure and sectoral properties of the Bank of Canada's Small Annual Model, SAM. The SAM model, constructed in the Research Department of the Bank, is designed for medium- to long-term simulation. It is small by econometric model standards; the version described in this report has 25 stochastic […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4
Responses of Various Econometric Models to Selected Policy Shocks Technical Report No. 38 Brian O'Reilly, Graydon Paulin, Philip Smith In July, 1982 a seminar was held in Ottawa to compare the responses of nine major econometric models to a previously specified set of shocks to the Canadian economy. At the seminar, which was sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance, participants presented the results of their simulations and discussed the […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17
Modelling Government Fiscal Behaviour in Canada Technical Report No. 34 Jack Selody, Kevin Lynch There are many models of fiscal policy in the economic literature and each has been based on a particular set of assumptions concerning the interaction of policy variables. However, even though these assumptions are critical to the behaviour of the models, there has as yet been no systematic attempt to test their validity or relative […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, H, H3, H30, H6, H60
An Econometric Model of the Steel Trade Technical Report No. 33 Richard Dion In this report, the author uses steel as a case study for an analysis at the industrial level of forces at work in the international economy that have had an important impact on recent Canadian economic performance. Prominent among those forces are cost competitiveness and aggregate demand in Canada and abroad. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, F, F1, F14