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34 Results

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Staff Working Paper 2011-15 Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian, Robert Vigfusson
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications?

How Changes in Oil Prices Affect the Macroeconomy

Staff Working Paper 2009-33 Brian DePratto, Carlos De Resende, Philipp Maier
We estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side effects (affecting trend growth).

The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-9 Olivier Gervais, Ilan Kolet
The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies.
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