Price Selection Staff working paper 2018-44 Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We propose a simple, model-free way to measure selection in price setting and its contribution to inflation dynamics. The proposed measure of price selection is based on the observed comovement between inflation and the average level from which adjusting prices depart. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt Staff working paper 2018-38 Dmitry Matveev This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policy when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is occasionally binding in a model with nominal rigidities and long-term government debt. At the lower bound it is optimal for the government to temporarily reduce debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-37 Yuko Imura, Malik Shukayev This paper studies the effects of monetary policy shocks on firms’ participation in exporting. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms make forward-looking decisions on whether to participate in the export market and prices are staggered across firms and time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F12, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-36 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Many central banks are contemplating whether to issue central bank digital currency. This piece explores the implications as well as potential motivators of such a step. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Following the Money: Evidence for the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing Staff working paper 2018-33 Itay Goldstein, Jonathan Witmer, Jing Yang Recent research suggests that quantitative easing (QE) may affect a broad range of asset prices through a portfolio balance channel. Using novel security-level holding data of individual US mutual funds, we establish evidence that portfolio rebalancing occurred both within and across funds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium Staff discussion paper 2018-7 Russell Barnett, Konrad Zmitrowicz During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates Staff analytical note 2018-22 Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich The neutral nominal policy rate serves as a benchmark for assessing the degree of monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the policy rate. Since quantitative measures of the neutral rate are subject to considerable uncertainty, Bank staff rely on four different approaches to estimate the Canadian neutral rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Readability and the Bank of Canada Staff analytical note 2018-20 Alexandre Deslongchamps In this note, I assess the readability of Bank of Canada publications using a formula commonly used for this type of evaluation. I find that Bank publications are more difficult to read than the media articles and other content our target audiences likely consume. This suggests that more simple writing can help the Bank better meet its communication objectives. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields and Real Bond Yields Staff working paper 2018-24 Guihai Zhao Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Noisy Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-23 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Luca Gambetti We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation