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22 Results

Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy

Staff Working Paper 2011-10 Huixin Bi
We develop a closed economy model to study the interactions among sovereign risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy. The stochastic fiscal limits, which measure the ability and willingness of the government to service its debt, arise endogenously from a dynamic Laffer curve.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H3, H30, H6, H60

Domestic versus External Borrowing and Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets

Staff Working Paper 2007-33 Garima Vasishtha
Domestic public debt issued by emerging markets has risen significantly relative to international debt in recent years. Some recent empirical evidence also suggests that sovereigns have defaulted differentially on debt held by domestic and external creditors.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, H, H2, H21, H6, H63

Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis

Staff Working Paper 2007-13 David Bolder, Tiago Rubin
The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt-management strategy provides a wide variety of useful information. It does not, however, assist in determining an optimal debt-management strategy for the government in its current form.

A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Government of Canada's Debt Strategy

Staff Working Paper 2003-10 David Bolder
Debt strategy is defined as the manner in which a government finances an excess of government expenditures over revenues and any maturing debt issued in previous periods. The author gives a thorough qualitative description of the complexities of debt strategy analysis and then demonstrates that it is, in fact, a problem in stochastic optimal control.

The Effects of Budget Rules on Fiscal Performance and Macroeconomic Stabilization

Staff Working Paper 1997-15 Jonathan Millar
Budget rules can be defined as legislated or constitutional constraints on government deficits, taxes, expenditures, or debt. This paper reviews the budget rules recently legislated in six of Canada's provinces and both of its territories, as well as budget rules in other OECD countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H3, H6, H61

L'endettement du Canada et ses effets sur les taux d'intérêt réels de long terme

Staff Working Paper 1996-14 Jean-François Fillion
This paper examines the effects that Canada's indebtedness has on Canadian real long-term interest rates, using the vector error-correction model (VECM). Our results show that there is a strongly cointegrated relationship between real interest rates in Canada, U.S. real interest rates, and Canadian public and external debt ratios.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F30, H, H6, H60

Provincial Credit Ratings in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis

Staff Working Paper 1996-6 Stella Cheung
The author estimates the relationship between the provincial credit ratings, as assessed by Standard & Poor's, and a number of economic variables, using the ordered probit methodology. All the variables in her estimation prove to be significant. In particular, she finds that downgrades take place at almost the same speed at different levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, based on a pooled sample of nine provinces.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): H, H6, H63

Fiscal Policy and External Balance in the G-7 Countries

Technical Report No. 60 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper assesses evidence, from the G-7 countries, of a link between a country's fiscal policy and its external balance, often referred to as the "twin deficits" phenomenon. It begins by reviewing the stylized facts, and then examines the theoretical case for such a link.

Government Debt in an Open Economy

Technical Report No. 58 Douglas Laxton, Robert Tetlow
This paper introduces the CORE model, a prototype for a new quarterly model of the Canadian economy, designed for projections and policy analysis with focus beyond the very short run. The model has a clearly defined equilibrium and explicit adjustment mechanisms, primarily through relative prices, that are dynamically stable. Overlaid on a neo-classical growth model […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, F, F3, F32, H, H3, H30, H6, H60

Les effets macro-économiques des déficits budgétaires : résultats d'un modèle de simulation

Technical Report No. 47 Pierre Duguay, Yves Rabeau
An increase in a government deficit can have two effects: short-term stimulation of aggregate demand and employment, and long-term contraction of potential output. In this paper, these effects are illustrated using a dynamic, macroeconomic simulation model. The model is not a forecasting tool; it is intended to bridge the gap between Keynesian and supply-side economics […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): H, H6, H60
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