The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for the Optimal Monetary Policy in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2007-1 Claude Lavoie, Hope Pioro The authors assess the performance of the Canadian economy under a variety of interest rate rules when the zero bound on nominal interest rates can bind. Their assessment is based on numerical simulations of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model in a stochastic environment. Consistent with the literature, the authors find that the probability and consequences […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, E5, E52
World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective Staff Working Paper 2007-16 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This paper explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, F, F3
Uncollateralized Overnight Loans Settled in LVTS Staff Working Paper 2007-11 Scott Hendry, Nadja Kamhi Loan-level data on the uncollateralized overnight loan market is generated using payment data from Canada's Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) and a modified version of the methodology proposed in Furfine (1999). There were on average just under 100 loans extended in this market each day from March 2004 to March 2006 for a total daily value of about $5 billion. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E50, G, G1, G12
December 23, 2006 Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Over the past 25 years, world long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. The authors explore global saving and investment outcomes that have led to the fall in the world real interest rate. The results show that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and the age structure of the world economy. The conclusions suggest that, over the coming years, it is unlikely that these slowly changing variables will be a source of significant changes in world real interest rates. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics
December 18, 2006 A Summary of the Bank of Canada Conference on Fixed-Income Markets, 3–4 May 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Gregory Bauer, Scott Hendry The Bank of Canada's interest in fixed-income markets spans several of its functional areas of responsibility, including monetary policy, funds management, and financial system stability and efficiency. For that reason, the 2006 conference brought together top academics and central bankers from around the world to discuss leading-edge work in the field of fixed-income research. The papers and discussions cover such topics as the efficiency of fixed-income markets, price formation, the determinants of the yield curve, and volatility modelling. This article provides a short summary of each conference paper and the ensuing discussion. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Interest rates
Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective Staff Working Paper 2006-48 David Bolder Modelling term-structure dynamics is an important component in measuring and managing the exposure of portfolios to adverse movements in interest rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1
Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates? Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
An Evaluation of MLE in a Model of the Nonlinear Continuous-Time Short-Term Interest Rate Staff Working Paper 2005-45 Ingrid Lo The author compares the performance of three Gaussian approximation methods - by Nowman (1997), Shoji and Ozaki (1998), and Yu and Phillips (2001) - in estimating a model of the nonlinear continuous-time short-term interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E4
The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach Staff Working Paper 2005-36 René Garcia, Richard Luger The authors develop and estimate an equilibrium-based model of the Canadian term structure of interest rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, E5, E52
Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process Staff Working Paper 2005-35 Fuchun Li A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14