High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks Staff working paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E30, E32, E6, E60, E62, E65 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
October 29, 2025 Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼% Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025 Canada’s economy is adjusting to tariffs and the sharp drop in demand for exports. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation remains about 2½%. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—In focus—Shifts in Cost Pressures Cost pressures are expected to ease. But businesses continue to face high input costs due to US tariffs and the broader reconfiguration of global trade.
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—Overview The Canadian economy is adjusting to steep US tariffs on several industries and coping with elevated uncertainty. Tariffs have led to a fall in the demand for Canadian goods, affecting the broader economy. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is also leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation has continued to be about 2½%.
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—Risks Risks related to Canada’s trade relationship with the United States remain elevated. The outlook could also be affected by risks that are not directly related to tariffs.
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—In focus—Assessing underlying inflation The goal of monetary policy is to keep total inflation close to the 2% target. But inflation can be volatile, and it takes time for changes to interest rates to filter through the economy. This is why, when setting policy, it is important to distinguish between temporary movements in inflation and lasting ones.