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141 Results

Shift Contagion in Asset Markets

Staff Working Paper 2003-5 Toni Gravelle, Maral Kichian, James Morley
The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called "shift contagion."

Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain

Staff Working Paper 2003-3 René Lalonde, Patrick Sabourin
This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.

Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?

Previous studies on whether the nature of the exchange rate regime influences a country's medium-term growth performance have been based on a tripartite classification scheme that distinguishes between pegged, intermediate, and flexible exchange rate regimes.

The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds

Staff Working Paper 2001-20 Andy Haldane, Mark Kruger
Over the past year and a half, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties to deal with a crisis and preserve the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, F4, F42

On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting

Staff Working Paper 2001-3 Kevin Clinton
Two aspects of the recent monetary history of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand stand out: the sensitivity of their dollars to prices of resource-based commodities, and inflation targeting. This paper explores various aspects of these phenomena.

Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

Staff Working Paper 2000-15 Jeannine Bailliu
An important issue in the debate over the desirability of freer capital mobility for developing countries is whether capital flows have significant effects on economic growth. Proponents of capital account liberalization cite the growth-promoting attributes of capital inflows as a key benefit of financial integration for developing countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F4, F43, O, O5, O50

Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico

Staff Working Paper 1999-10 Patrick Osakwe, Lawrence L. Schembri
This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expectations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. Output is found to […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41

Fiscal Policy and External Balance in the G-7 Countries

Technical Report No. 60 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper assesses evidence, from the G-7 countries, of a link between a country's fiscal policy and its external balance, often referred to as the "twin deficits" phenomenon. It begins by reviewing the stylized facts, and then examines the theoretical case for such a link.
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