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293 Results

Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market

Staff working paper 2021-50 Radoslav Raykov
This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses.

Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock

Staff working paper 2021-48 Ingomar Krohn, Philippe Mueller, Paul Whelan
We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes.

Covariates Hiding in the Tails

Staff working paper 2021-45 Milian Bachem, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries
We characterize the bias in cross-sectional Hill estimates caused by common underlying factors and propose two simple-to-implement remedies. To test for the presence, direction and size of the bias, we use monthly US stock returns and annual US Census county population data.

Rising US LNG Exports and Global Natural Gas Price Convergence

Staff discussion paper 2021-14 Robert Ialenti
We assess how rising exports of US liquefied natural gas affect the convergence of natural gas prices worldwide. Our results may have implications for the development of future LNG export capacity in Canada.

Reaching for yield or resiliency? Explaining the shift in Canadian pension plan portfolios

“Reach for yield”—This is the commonly heard explanation for why pension plans shift their portfolios toward alternative assets. But we show that the new portfolios also hold more bonds, offer lower average returns and produce smaller and less volatile solvency deficits. These shifts are part of a broader strategy to reduce solvency risk.

Centralizing Over-the-Counter Markets?

Staff working paper 2021-39 Jason Allen, Milena Wittwer
Would a shift in trading in fixed-income markets—from over the counter (bilateral trading) to a centralized electronic platform—improve welfare? We use trade-level data on the secondary market for Government of Canada debt to answer this question.

Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter

Staff working paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia
Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency.

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2021?

Staff analytical note 2021-15 David Beers, Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh
The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

The Effects of Government Licensing on E-commerce: Evidence from Alibaba

Staff working paper 2021-32 Ginger Zhe Jin, Zhentong Lu, Xiaolu Zhou, Chunxiao Li
How does government licensing affect selling on online platforms? We examine the impact of China’s 2015 Food Safety Law on sellers and buyers on Alibaba, the largest e-commerce platform in that country.

Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity

Staff working paper 2021-30 Toni Ahnert, David Martinez-Miera
How is the stability of the financial sector affected by competition in the deposit market and by decisions banks make about transparency? We find that policies that aim to increase bank competition lead to higher bank deposit rates, increasing both withdrawal incentives and instability.
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