Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter Staff working paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2021? Staff analytical note 2021-15 David Beers, Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
The Effects of Government Licensing on E-commerce: Evidence from Alibaba Staff working paper 2021-32 Ginger Zhe Jin, Zhentong Lu, Xiaolu Zhou, Chunxiao Li How does government licensing affect selling on online platforms? We examine the impact of China’s 2015 Food Safety Law on sellers and buyers on Alibaba, the largest e-commerce platform in that country. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, K, K2, K23, L, L5, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity Staff working paper 2021-30 Toni Ahnert, David Martinez-Miera How is the stability of the financial sector affected by competition in the deposit market and by decisions banks make about transparency? We find that policies that aim to increase bank competition lead to higher bank deposit rates, increasing both withdrawal incentives and instability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
COVID-19 crisis: Liquidity management at Canada’s largest public pension funds Staff analytical note 2021-11 Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Daniel Bolduc-Zuluaga, Annick Demers, Jean-Philippe Dion, Manu Pandey, Léanne Berger-Soucy, Adrian Walton We examine how the eight largest Canadian public pension funds managed liquidity during the market turmoil in March 2020. The funds were generally resilient to large demands for liquidity and relied heavily on Canada's core funding markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing Market Staff working paper 2021-18 Zhentong Lu, Sisi Zhang, Jian Hong How do “cooling measures” in the housing market—policies aimed to stabilize prices—affect the market? We use a structural model of housing demand and price competition among developers to evaluate China’s home purchase restriction policies implemented in 2010–11. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): O, O1, O18, R, R3, R31, R38 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets Staff working paper 2021-17 Gaelan MacKenzie Trade liberalizations increase the sales and input purchases of productive firms relative to their less productive domestic competitors. This reallocation affects firms’ market power in their product and input markets. I quantify how the labour market power of employers affects the distribution and size of the gains from trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, F, F1, F12, F6, J, L, L1, L13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19? Staff analytical note 2021-3 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ryan Shotlander The TSX index rose by 9.5 percent in November 2020, adding large gains to an already sharp V-shaped recovery. The economic outlook improved at that time as well. We ask whether the stock market gains since last autumn are due to improving forecasts of firms’ earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
COVID-19 Crisis: Lessons Learned for Future Policy Research Staff discussion paper 2021-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Corey Garriott, Jesse Johal, Jessica Lee, Andreas Uthemann One year later, we review the events that took place in Canadian fixed-income markets at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis and propose potential policy research questions for future work. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E41, E5, G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G2, G20, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers Staff working paper 2021-9 João Granja, Nuno Paixão We show that US banks price deposits almost uniformly across their branches and that this pricing practice is more important than increases in local market concentration in explaining the deposit rate dynamics following bank mergers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G20, G21, G28, G3, G34, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk