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This paper examines how market-perceived AI exposure is associated with extreme financial-sector gains and losses across five markets, using Expected Shortfall and skewness decompositions to distinguish AI-sector, macroeconomic, systemic and financial scenarios.

Canada has spent more than its national income for much of the post-Global Financial Crisis period. Yet favourable asset-price and exchange-rate movements have raised Canada’s net foreign assets. Since 1990, cumulative valuation gains were about three times the current-account deficit, relaxing the adjustment needed to stabilize Canada’s external position.

Canadian housing imbalances have elevated shelter inflation as a driver of CPI, fueled by high house prices, mortgage costs, rents, supply constraints, and leverage. This note uses a model with housing supply and extrapolative expectations to assess whether monetary policy should incorporate or look through shelter inflation under demand and supply shocks.

This paper examines how auction timing may affect sovereign issuance outcomes through its interaction with market volatility. Using Canada as a case study, it shows that: (1) higher same-day bond market volatility is associated with larger auction tails, indicating weaker demand conditions; and (2) monetary policy announcements and certain macroeconomic data releases are systematically associated with higher same-day volatility.

We develop a news-based measure of perceived financial stress for Canada using Globe and Mail articles since 1977. We show that news shocks primarily impact unsecured households credit, consistent with household precautionary behavior.

The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

Portfolio-balance models of the yield curve are notoriously hard to estimate. This paper offers a simple, two-step estimation approach that can be implemented with standard term structure estimation methods. In our application to U.S. Treasury data, our method recovers economically interpretable drivers of the yield curve.

We investigate whether hedge funds contributed to Government of Canada bond market illiquidity at the onset of the Middle East war in early 2026. We find no evidence they did. Hedge funds remained active in primary auctions, while their secondary market trading remained broadly consistent with their usual relative-value strategies.

We show that haircuts are rarely used in the Canadian dealer-to-client repo market and their usage did not increase materially during past stress events. Usage is concentrated among wealth managers and some foreign official institutions, likely reflecting regulatory or internal requirements.

We present a measure of account-level credit card spending constructed using credit bureau microdata, capturing monthly spending for approximately 80% of adults in Canada. Our measure offers higher frequency than other publicly available consumption metrics, and can be disaggregated by age, geographic location and credit history.