August 23, 2011 How People Think and How It Matters Remarks Jean Boivin Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario In his speech entitled “How People Think and How it Matters,” delivered to the Canadian Association for Business Economics, Deputy Governor Jean Boivin reviews various ways people form expectations and how these affect monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada Staff Working Paper 2008-10 Miroslav Misina, Greg Tkacz Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G1, G10
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls Staff Working Paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10
Do Exchange Rates Affect the Capital-Labour Ratio? Panel Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries Staff Working Paper 2005-12 Danny Leung, Terence Yuen Using industry-level data for Canadian manufacturing industries from 1981 to 1997, the authors find empirical evidence of a negative relationship between the capital-labour ratio and the user cost of capital relative to the price of labour. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F4
The Institutional and Political Determinants of Fiscal Adjustment Staff Working Paper 2006-1 Robert Lavigne The author empirically assesses the effects of institutional and political factors on the need and willingness of governments to make large fiscal adjustments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, O, O1, O17, O19
The Role of Beliefs in Entering and Exiting the Bitcoin Market Staff Working Paper 2024-22 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41, O, O3, O33
Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis Staff Working Paper 2014-21 Tatjana Dahlhaus This paper studies the effects of a monetary policy expansion in the United States during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (“normal” and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
An Analysis of Closure Policy under Alternative Regulatory Structures Staff Working Paper 2005-11 Greg Caldwell The author develops a theoretical model of bank closure. The regulatory decision about bank failure consists of two parts: whether to close and how to close. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28
The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations Staff Working Paper 2021-33 Sushant Acharya, Jess Benhabib, Zhen Huo We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E32, F, F4, F44
Testing for the Diffusion Matrix in a Continuous-Time Markov Process Model with Applications to the Term Structure of Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2015-17 Fuchun Li The author proposes a test for the parametric specification of each component in the diffusion matrix of a d-dimensional diffusion process. Overall, d (d-1)/2 test statistics are constructed for the off-diagonal components, while d test statistics are constructed for the main diagonal components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, E, E1, E17, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G2, G20