January 23, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004 Cover page Brass Cash Register, 1910 The register is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photographed by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Testing the Pricing-to-Market Hypothesis: Case of the Transportation Equipment Industry Staff Working Paper 2000-8 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian Pricing-to-market (PTM) theory suggests that monopolistic firms which export adjust their destination-specific markups in reaction to exchange rate shocks. These adjustments limit changes in the price of their exports. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, L, L1, L11, L16
A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets? Staff Working Paper 2003-31 Nicholas Rowe, David Tulk The authors evaluate whether an assortment of simple rules could improve how the Bank of Canada implements its inflation-targeting monetary policy. They focus on measuring the correlation between the deviations of inflation from the target and the lagged deviations of rule recommendations from the actual policy interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5
Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level Staff Working Paper 2001-16 Gerald Stuber This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E31, E4, E44
Prévision et analyse de la production manufacturière au Canada : comparaison de modèles linéaires et non linéaires Staff Working Paper 2004-40 Frédérick Demers In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53
November 16, 2021 Labour market uncertainties and monetary policy Remarks (delivered virtually) Lawrence L. Schembri Canadian Association for Business Economics Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri talks about changes to the labour market, and how the pandemic affected Canadian workers. He also discusses how the Bank is adapting labour market analysis tools to help guide monetary policy decisions that will support a more inclusive recovery. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output
Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study Staff Working Paper 2017-1 Paul Corrigan Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E5, E51, F, F3, F36, F4, F41
Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5
Composition of International Capital Flows: A Survey Staff Working Paper 2010-33 Koralai Kirabaeva, Assaf Razin We survey several key mechanisms that explain the composition of international capital flows: foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment and debt flows (bank loans and bonds). In particular, we focus on the following market frictions: asymmetric information in capital markets and exposure to liquidity shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, F, F2, F21, F3, F34
Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits Staff Discussion Paper 2016-17 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Tamon Takamura This note examines the merits of monetary policy adjustments in response to financial stability concerns, taking into account changes in the state of knowledge since the renewal of the inflation-targeting agreement in 2011. A key financial system vulnerability in Canada is elevated household indebtedness: as more and more households are nearing their debt-capacity limits, the likelihood and severity of a large negative correction in housing markets are also increasing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G18