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2996 Results

India and the Global Demand for Commodities: Is There an Elephant in the Room?

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-18 Michael Francis, Corinne Luu
After 10 years of impressive growth, India is now the fourth largest economy in the world. Yet, to date, India's impact on global commodity markets has been muted. The authors examine how India's domestic and trade policies have distorted and constrained its demand for commodities.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, O, O1, O13, O5, O53

Dynamic Competition in Negotiated Price Markets

Staff Working Paper 2020-22 Jason Allen, Shaoteng Li
Repeated interactions between borrowers and lenders create the possibility of dynamic pricing: lenders compete aggressively with low prices to attract new borrowers and then raise their prices once borrowers have made a commitment. We find such pricing patterns in the Canadian mortgage market.
November 17, 2001

Predictability of Average Inflation over Long Time Horizons

Uncertainty about the level of future inflation adversely affects the economy because it distorts the savings and investment decisions of households and businesses. Since these decisions typically involve planning horizons of many years, the adverse effects from inflation uncertainty can be reduced by adopting a policy framework that makes future inflation more predictable over long time horizons. When the inflation-control target was renewed in May 2001, the agreement affirmed that monetary policy will be directed at moving inflation to the 2 per cent midpoint of the target range over a six-to-eight-quarter horizon. The author describes how this policy commitment increases the predictability of average inflation over periods longer than one year. This relationship is illustrated using the Canadian experience from the inflation-targeting period.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Inflation targets
May 19, 2011

Central Bank Collateral Policy: Insights from Recent Experience

The collateral policy of central banks played a critical role during the recent financial crisis, as they worked to bolster liquidity and alleviate the funding pressures facing financial institutions. This article examines central bank collateral policy and discusses three areas in which central banks can use their collateral policy to influence financial market practices: promoting greater transparency for securitized products, improving practices related to credit risk, and reducing procyclicality in the management of market risk.

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Staff Working Paper 2011-15 Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian, Robert Vigfusson
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications?

The U.S. New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Empirical Assessment

Staff Working Paper 2004-35 Alain Guay, Florian Pelgrin
The authors examine the evidence presented by Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001, 2003) that the inflation dynamics in the United States can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31

Identifying the Degree of Collusion Under Proportional Reduction

Staff Working Paper 2017-51 Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Naoki Wakamori
Proportional reduction is a common cartel practice in which cartel members reduce their output proportionately. We develop a method to quantify this reduction relative to a benchmark market equilibrium scenario and relate the reduction to the traditional conduct parameter.

Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-3 René Lalonde, Philipp Maier, Dirk Muir
The authors explore the usefulness of macroeconomic models in analyzing global economic developments by examining movements in commodity prices between July 2007 and July 2008. They use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model and investigate the longer-term outlook for commodity prices by constructing two different, globally consistent, scenarios for emerging Asia.
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