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The Bank projects the Canadian economy will grow by 2.4 per cent in 2012 and 2013 before moderating to 2.2 per cent in 2014. The economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013.

When lenders cannot directly identify behavioural and rational borrowers, they use type scoring to track the likelihood of a borrower’s type. This leads to the partial pooling of borrowers, which results in rational borrowers subsidizing borrowing costs for behavioural borrowers. This, in turn, reduces the effectiveness of regulatory policies that target mistakes by behavioural borrowers.

In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability.

The Bank expects a sharp rebound in economic activity in the reopening phase of the recovery, followed by a more prolonged recuperation phase.

Canadian economic activity remains strong, and employment is robust. The Bank is forecasting growth of about 4¼% in 2022, easing to 3¼% in 2023.

We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status.

Freeman (1999) proposes a model in which discount window lending and open market operations have different effects. This is important because in most of the literature, these policies are indistinguishable.

We present a two-country model featuring risky lending and cross-border interbank market frictions.

This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy in a DSGE model with sticky prices and non-zero trend inflation. We characterize the fiscal and monetary policies by a rule whereby a given fraction k of the government debt must be backed by the discounted value of current and future primary surpluses.

The premium on “on-the-run” Treasuries is an anomaly. I explain it using a model in which primary dealers hold inventories of Treasuries. I use the model to analyze the effects of granting access to central bank facilities.