May 30, 2019 Economic Progress Report: Investing in Growth Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade Staff working paper 2025-11 Lu Han Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
February 21, 2025 Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy Remarks Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Risks With geopolitical uncertainty elevated and Canada’s trade agreement with the United States and Mexico under review, risks around the outlook are unusually high.
The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates Staff working paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial Market Staff working paper 2018-49 Lin Shao This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, O, O1, O17, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
January 22, 2009 Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2009 The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated significantly since the October Monetary Policy Report. The financial crisis intensified last autumn and spilled over into an already weak global economy, which, in turn, put further strains on the financial system. Erratum: In Table 1 Interest Rates, the column "Estimated variable mortgage rate" should read 5.65 per cent for 4 December 2007 not 5.25. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis Staff working paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
February 4, 2010 The Coming Thaw Remarks Mark Carney Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba It is a pleasure to be here in Winnipeg. Today, I intend to elaborate on elements of the Bank of Canada's economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
October 9, 2009 Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2009 Responses to the autumn survey suggest that the Canadian economy is recovering, as all indicators of business activity have increased since the summer survey. However, because firms continue to expect activity to pick up only gradually, they remain cautious regarding investment. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey