A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models Staff discussion paper 2023-23 Donald Coletti The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C51, C52, C53, C54, C55 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada Staff working paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F4, F43, Q, Q3, Q33, Q4, Q43, R, R1, R12, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services Staff discussion paper 2023-27 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
February 17, 2005 Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Movements Remarks David Dodge Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Every year, the Canadian Press surveys news directors and editors to select the top business story of the year. In 2004, they picked the rise of the Canadian dollar. That was not a surprising choice. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada Staff analytical note 2017-5 Andrew Agopsowicz, Bassirou Gueye, Natalia Kyui, Youngmin Park, Mohanad Salameh, Ben Tomlin This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
October 23, 2002 Monetary Policy Report – October 2002 Over the past year, Canada’s economy has outperformed the economies of virtually all the other major industrial countries. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
February 10, 2011 Commodity Prices: The Long and the Short of It Remarks John Murray IPAC-Saskatchewan/Johnson/Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy Regina, Saskatchewan Commodity prices are once again making headlines. Some commodity prices, such as those for copper and cattle, have reached record highs; others are rising quickly and approaching previous peaks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
New Housing Registrations as a Leading Indicator of the BC Economy Staff discussion paper 2016-3 Calista Cheung, Dmitry Granovsky Housing starts and building permits data are commonly used as leading indicators of economic activity. In British Columbia, all new homes must be registered with the Homeowner Protection Office, a branch of BC Housing, before the issuance of building permits and the start of construction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
October 20, 2006 MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2006 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde, Nicolas Parent Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of the world. The authors focus on MUSE, the model currently used to describe interaction among the principal U.S. economic variables, including gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Brief descriptions are also provided of NEUQ and BoC-GEM. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
June 19, 2008 Capitalizing on the Commodity Boom: the Role of Monetary Policy Remarks Mark Carney Haskayne School of Business Calgary, Alberta We are experiencing a commodity super cycle. Throughout the current boom, the scale of price increases has been higher, and the range of affected commodities broader, than in previous upturns. Since 2002, grain and oilseed prices have more than doubled, base metals prices have tripled, and oil prices have quadrupled. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks