How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections Staff discussion paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
September 11, 2008 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Cover page Leonard C. Wyon: Canada’s Victorian Engraver Photography by Gord Carter Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
October 23, 2024 Monetary Policy Report—October 2024—Risks The Bank of Canada sees both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, but the base-case scenario is considered the most likely outcome.
August 15, 2013 Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Russell Barnett, Pierre Guérin The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37
June 28, 2005 The International Monetary Order and the Canadian Economy Remarks David Dodge Canada-U.K. Chamber of Commerce London, United Kingdom As business people with ties to Canada and the United Kingdom, you are keenly interested in the economic prospects of both countries. When we look closely at our economies, it is striking how much they have in common in terms of policies and outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
September 28, 2018 The benefits of freer trade Stephen Murchison, Alex Chernoff Freer trade lowers prices and boosts economies, yet not everyone benefits equally. Fair policies are essential for balanced growth and widespread prosperity. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth
Canadian job postings in digital sectors during COVID-19 Staff analytical note 2021-18 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi Digital technologies have helped maintain economic activity while allowing people to remain physically distant throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This note shows that the number of online postings for jobs related to the production of digital technologies in Canada decreased less than the number for other jobs and recovered more quickly after lockdowns were lifted. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J23, J6, J63, J64, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures Staff analytical note 2019-26 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maxime Leboeuf Lending to business is central to economic growth because it supports investment by firms. Knowing how market participants view risk in the financial system can give the Bank of Canada information about future growth in business loans. In this note, we look at three market-based risk measures and find that sudden increases in the perception of risk in the Canadian banking system are associated with a weaker outlook for business loans and real gross domestic product. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
October 25, 2017 Monetary Policy Report – October 2017 Projections for Canadian economic growth have been increased to 3.1 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent in 2018, with growth of 1.5 per cent forecast for 2019. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
June 11, 2009 BoC-GEM: Modelling the World Economy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2009 René Lalonde, Dirk Muir BoC-GEM, an adaptation of the Global Economy Model, initially developed at the International Monetary Fund and the New York Federal Reserve, is a very useful tool to tackle a broad range of issues pertinent to the current economic context, such as the recent movements in commodity prices and the adjustment of global imbalances. This article describes the structure and functioning of BoC-GEM and details some examples of recent application in the areas of monetary policy and issues in the real economy and questions of financial stability and describes ongoing research into introducing a financial sector into the model. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles