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This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks.

As major producers of commodities, both Canada and Australia rely heavily on international trade for our economic expansion, and we each rely extensively on global capital markets. So, what I would like to talk about first is how we see the global and Canadian economies unfolding and what we might expect to see in the future. Following that, I'll also talk about some of the policies that can best help countries like ours to deal with the challenges of today's global economy, looking at this from both a domestic and an international perspective.

The Bank of Canada congratulates the Integrated Counterfeit Enforcement Team from British Columbia’s Federal Serious and Organized Crime branch, E Division—Financial Integrity. They are the winners of the 2018 Law Enforcement Award of Excellence for Counterfeit Deterrence.

We investigate how the increase in interest rates since early 2022 is affecting mortgage payments. By November 2023, less than half of mortgage holders had faced higher payments. Many borrowers will see a sizable increase in payments at renewal, although income growth could help mitigate the impact.

We study access to Canadian retail banking and cash services in rural, localized markets using the Bresnahan-Reiss entry threshold framework. We find that the first retail banking services branch entry requires about 500 residents in an average market, whereas the first cash services location requires about 80 residents.

Governor Tiff Macklem talks about how the labour market has adjusted to higher interest rates and slower economic growth. He also discusses how a strong, inclusive labour market is key to growth in the long run.

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to assess central bank digital currency (CBDC) design in a monetary system where traditional banks and “crypto banks” (i.e., banks that issue stablecoins) coexist. We compare tokenized and non-tokenized CBDC, showing that their desirability depends on the reliability of private money provision, the availability of collateral assets and the features of the crypto sector.

We present a policy framework for electronic money and payments. The framework poses a set of positive questions related to the areas of responsibility of central banks: payments systems, monetary policy and financial stability. The questions are posed to four broad forms of e-money: privately or publicly issued, and with centralized or decentralized verification of transactions. This framework is intended to help evaluate the trade-offs that central banks face in the decision to issue new forms of e-money.