Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies Staff discussion paper 2018-13 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Lam This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, F, F3, F34, G, G0, G01, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Balancing the Canadian Repo Market through QT: The Diminishing Role of Settlement Balances Staff analytical paper 2026-40 Evan Dudley, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Dimitri Hadjistavropoulos, Neil Maru, Sofia Tchamova, Andreas Uthemann, Jun Yang Repo market imbalances can be large and persistent, and can lift the cost of short-term funding in Canada, including the CORRA benchmark. Banks’ holdings of settlement balances absorbed most of the repo imbalances during QE, but have become far less central by the end of QT. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
April 26, 2000 The Canadian Economy: Charting a Course for the Future Remarks Gordon Thiessen Chambre de commerce régionale de Sainte-Foy Sainte-Foy, Quebec The 1990s was a difficult period for Canada and the Canadian economy. From the beginning of the decade, it was clear that we had to grapple with the problems that had been hampering our economic performance through most of the 1970s and 1980s. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment Staff discussion paper 2018-9 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Reassessing the Growth of HELOCs in Canada Using New Regulatory Data Staff analytical note 2019-14 Leila Al-Mqbali, Olga Bilyk, Stefan Caputo, James Younker Using new regulatory data on residential secured lending from Canadian banks, we assess the growth rate of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
July 22, 2011 Global Financial Reform: Maintaining the Momentum Remarks Tiff Macklem G-20 Workshop on 7 July 2011 Paris, France In his remarks entitled Global Financial Reform: Maintaining the Momentum, delivered to the G-20 workshop organized by the Australian Treasury in Paris on 7 July 2011, Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem reviews the achievements toward a more resilient financial system and the challenges related to oversight and regulation, and reducing contagion and harmful spillovers. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update Staff analytical note 2025-16 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Ingomar Krohn, Jan David Schneider We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
December 11, 2006 Improving Financial System Efficiency: The Need for Action Remarks David Dodge Economic Club of Toronto Toronto, Ontario The FSR reports on developments and trends in financial systems here and abroad, summarizes recent research by Bank staff on financial sector policies, and promotes discussion of how to strengthen our financial system. In short, the goal of the FSR is to improve financial system efficiency and stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation Staff working paper 2021-59 Igor Livshits, Youngmin Park We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, P, P4, P48 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
April 1, 2024 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2024 Business sentiment and sales growth expectations have stopped falling, according to firms responding to the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. But demand remains subdued, which is allowing price pressures and the labour market to ease. As a result, fewer firms than in the previous survey are planning unusually large or frequent price increases over the next 12 months. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey