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The article examines the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in Canada and its implications for monetary policy. The authors ask whether its existence is a sufficient argument for a higher inflation target if concerns about the effective lower bound are adequately addressed.

There is increasing international consensus that monetary policy can contribute to productivity growth and rising standards of living by establishing a stable, low-inflation environment, Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen told The Fraser Institute in a speech today.

Economic growth has ticked up in Canada, boosted by past cuts in interest rates. In the absence of new tariffs, growth is forecast to strengthen, and inflation remains close to 2%. But the threat of new tariffs is causing major uncertainty.

Inflation expectations for one to two years ahead have come down again but remain well above their levels from before the COVID-19 pandemic. The higher cost of living is the most pressing concern for consumers, and along with elevated interest rates, continues to constrain most households’ spending. Homeowners who are planning to renew their mortgage over the next two years and who expect significantly higher payments are likely to plan spending cuts. Some households though are starting to think the worst is behind them. Consumer confidence about the future of the economy has improved alongside their lower inflation expectations. Expected lower interest rates and strong immigration, which boosts housing demand, are behind consumers’ view that housing market will increase over the next year. Workers remain confident about jobs.

The Bank of Canada today released its twelfth semi-annual Monetary Policy Report in which it discusses economic and financial trends in the context of Canada’s inflation-control strategy. The Monetary Policy Report is published every May and November.

The Canadian economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace as it continues to adjust to US tariffs. Inflation has moved up due to higher oil prices linked to the war in the Middle East. It is projected to then ease back to the 2% target in 2027.

Measuring labour market slack is essential for central banks: without full employment in the economy, inflation will not stay close to target. We propose a comprehensive approach to assessing labour market slack that reflects the complexity and diversity of the labour market.

Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities.

Commentary and technical data relating to the 2021 renewal.

The authors examine whether monetary policy should and could do more to lean against financial imbalances (such as those associated with asset-price bubbles or unsustainable credit expansion) as they are building up, or whether its role should be limited to cleaning up the economic consequences as the imbalances unwind.