Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium and Volatility Dynamics Staff Working Paper 2013-12 Jianjian Jin This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of risk-neutral and realized volatilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G17
Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination Staff Working Paper 2013-11 Jon D. Samuels, Rodrigo Sekkel A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal weight averaging working particularly well. This paper analyzes the effects of trimming the set of models prior to averaging. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53
A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2013-10 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12
An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21
Countercyclical Bank Capital Requirement and Optimized Monetary Policy Rules Staff Working Paper 2013-8 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov Using BoC-GEM-Fin, a large-scale DSGE model with real, nominal and financial frictions featuring a banking sector, we explore the macroeconomic implications of various types of countercyclical bank capital regulations. Results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements have a significant stabilizing effect on key macroeconomic variables, but mostly after financial shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, G, G1, G2
March 30, 2013 Research Update - March 2013 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
A Tractable Monetary Model Under General Preferences Staff Working Paper 2013-7 Tsz-Nga Wong Consider the monetary model of Lagos and Wright (JPE 2005) but with general preferences and general production. I show that preferences satisfying UXXUHH – (UXH)2 = 0 is a sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of monetary equilibrium with degenerate money distribution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40
To Link or Not To Link? Netting and Exposures Between Central Counterparties Staff Working Paper 2013-6 Stacey Anderson, Jean-Philippe Dion, Héctor Pérez Saiz This paper provides a framework to compare linked and unlinked CCP configurations in terms of total netting achieved by market participants and the total system default exposures that exist between participants and CCPs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G23
Market Structure and Cost Pass-Through in Retail Staff Working Paper 2013-5 Gee Hee Hong, Nicholas Li We examine the extent to which vertical and horizontal market structure can together explain incomplete retail pass-through. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, L, L1, L11, L16
Méthodologie de construction de séries de taux de défaut pour l’industrie canadienne Staff Discussion Paper 2013-2 Ramdane Djoudad, Étienne Bordeleau Default rates are series commonly used in stress testing. In Canada, as in many other countries, there are no historical series available for sectoral default rates on bank loans to firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C18, G, G2, G21, G3, G33