November 8, 1996
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370
result(s)
Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?
Staff Working Paper 1996-9
Allan Crawford,
Marcel Kasumovich
The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increases at higher levels of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a proxy for inflation uncertainty, a positive relationship between the conditional variance and inflation would be interpreted as evidence that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
E,
E3,
E31
Interpreting Money-Supply and Interest-Rate Shocks as Monetary-Policy Shocks
Staff Working Paper 1996-8
Marcel Kasumovich
In this paper two shocks are analysed using Canadian data: a money-supply shock ("M-shock") and an interest-rate shock ("R-shock"). Money-supply shocks are derived using long-run restrictions based on long-run propositions of monetary theory. Thus, an M-shock is represented by an orthogonalized innovation in the trend shared by money and prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary and financial indicators,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E51
A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria
Staff Working Paper 1996-5
Joseph Atta-Mensah,
Walter Engert,
Scott Hendry,
Jamie Armour
A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Monetary aggregates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52
August 9, 1995
Uncertainty and the transmission of monetary policy in Canada (HERMES-Glendon Lecture)
Gordon Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada, delivered the HERMES-Glendon Lecture at York University, Toronto, in March 1995. The speech focussed on the interrelationships of uncertainty and the transmission of monetary policy to the economy. It looked at how the various types of uncertainty influence the behaviour of economic actors, and at how uncertainty affects the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. The first part of the lecture outlines the Bank of Canada's view of the transmission mechanism, with considerable attention paid to the role of uncertainty. In the second part, the various ways in which the Bank has tried to reduce uncertainty are discussed. The various kinds of uncertainty that impinge on the economy and on the policy process are addressed.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Monetary policy implementation
From Monetary Policy Instruments to Administered Interest Rates: The Transmission Mechanism in Canada
Technical Report No. 69
Kevin Clinton,
Donna Howard
The authors investigate interest-rate aspects of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy instruments in Canada, focussing on the stability of the relationships between some key interest rates and the instruments of monetary policy. To determine what shifts may have occurred in recent years, they describe movements in rate differentials, apply cointegration tests and estimate error-correction […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52
Monetary Policy, Uncertainty and the Presumption of Linearity
Technical Report No. 63
Douglas Laxton,
David Rose,
Robert Tetlow
This report shows that extreme conditions and volatility in markets are much more likely to result from systematic policy errors in gauging and responding to inflationary pressures in an economy than from unfortunate random shocks. We describe a simple model that incorporates the key features of the policy control process. We use two versions of […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52
A Comparison of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes in a Small Dynamic Open-Economy Simulation Model
Technical Report No. 42
David Longworth,
Stephen S. Poloz
In this paper, the simulation properties of a small, dynamic, open-economy IS-LM-Aggregate Supply model are examined under a variety of alternative policy rule assumptions. These assumptions include rigid money stock, exchange rate and nominal income targets, as well as less rigid policy rules that recognize information limitations. The model that is used consists of four […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52
An Integrated Model of the Portfolio Behaviour of the Canadian Household Sector: 1968-1983
Technical Report No. 41
Stephen S. Poloz
An econometric model of the portfolio behaviour of the Canadian household sector is developed to study the linkages between demands for financial assets. The theoretical basis for the model is a version of the well-known Brainard-Tobin framework, which is extended to integrate the consumption-savings and portfolio-allocation decisions. This integration allows joint estimation of the real […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G11
Asset Stocks and the Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policies to Reduce Inflation
Technical Report No. 35
Paul Masson
This paper analyzes the dynamic behaviour of a country's economy under different policy regimes, by examining the cyclical effects that occur when certain intermediate macroeconomic targets are adopted. To highlight the differences in the adjustment paths that result, the study deliberately limits policy choice: either money supply or nominal income as targets, and either real […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E6,
E63