Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism

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An important challenge facing central banks is making decisions under uncertainty about the dynamic effects of monetary policy actions. The authors stress the importance of explicitly recognizing uncertainty about the transmission mechanism when formulating policy advice. They argue that one way to manage monetary policy under uncertainty is to draw on both an output-gap paradigm and a money paradigm of the transmission mechanism to inform decision-making. Taking an eclectic, diversified approach to guide policy judgements could improve the policy outcome.