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The global economic recovery is entering a new phase. In advanced economies, temporary factors supporting growth in 2010 - such as the inventory cycle and pent-up demand - have largely run their course and fiscal stimulus will shift to fiscal consolidation over the projection horizon.

Responses to the autumn survey suggest that the economic recovery is progressing. Firms remain positive about the outlook over the next 12 months, but they generally expect growth to be modest, owing in part to a weaker outlook for the U.S. economy.

The survey results point to an overall easing in business-lending conditions during the third quarter of 2010. Both the price and non-price aspects of business lending eased during the quarter. Note that the balance of opinion indicates only the direction of the change in lending conditions; it does not provide information on the magnitude of the change.

The recent financial crisis and global economic slowdown have renewed interest in monetary policy options when the policy interest rate is at or near zero.

Stephen Murchison reviews the findings of recent Bank of Canada research on the relative merits of inflation targeting and price-level targeting (PLT) for a small open economy, such as Canada's, that is susceptible to large and persistent terms-of-trade shocks.

The authors examine whether monetary policy should and could do more to lean against financial imbalances (such as those associated with asset-price bubbles or unsustainable credit expansion) as they are building up, or whether its role should be limited to cleaning up the economic consequences as the imbalances unwind.

Although the current inflation-targeting regime has served Canadians well, sound public policy demands the continuous exploration of possible improvements in the monetary policy framework.

Examination of how, when the policy interest rate is at or near zero, different monetary policy frameworks might help to lower the risk and economic cost of such a scenario; review of the findings of recent Bank of Canada research on the relative merits of inflation targeting and price-level targeting (PLT) for a small open economy; examination of monetary policy being used to counteract financial imbalances; conference summary: new frontiers in monetary policy design.

Report commissioned by the Bank, written by Professor Duncan McDowall of Carleton University and released in November 1997. The Bank also released a search aid for related files in its archives and for Department of Finance documents.

by James F. Dingle. Outlines the history of the Association and its role in moving Canada's payments system from paper to electronic media.