Jean-Sébastien Fontaine - Latest

• What Drives Episodes of Settlement Fails in the Government of Canada Bond Market?

  Staff working paper 2017-54 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Pinnington, Adrian Walton

  We study settlement fails for trades in the Government of Canada bond market. We find that settlement fails do not occur independently. Using a novel and comprehensive dataset, we examine three drivers of fails.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G1, G2, G21, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures

• Do Liquidity Proxies Measure Liquidity in Canadian Bond Markets?

  Staff analytical note 2017-23 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jeffrey Gao, Jabir Sandhu, Kobe Wu

  This analytical note evaluates the reliability of proxies for measuring liquidity in Canadian bond markets. We find that price-impact and bid-ask proxies paint a similar picture of evolving liquidity conditions to that obtained from richer measures of liquidity for benchmark Government of Canada bonds.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning

• Measuring Limits of Arbitrage in Fixed-Income Markets

  Staff working paper 2017-44 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin

  We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Market structure
• May 11, 2017

  Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Perspective of a Small Open Economy

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Lena Suchanek, Jing Yang

  How do unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing and negative interest rates affect domestic financial conditions and the broader economy in small open econo-mies, such as Canada? These policies are effective in depreciating the exchange rate in small open economies, while lower interest rates are also passed through to the economy, albeit only partially. When conventional monetary policy is close to its limits, fiscal policy may be a more important complement to monetary policy in a small economy, particularly if global demand for safe assets compresses long-term interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65

• The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II

  Staff analytical note 2017-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin

  This analytical note examines how much of the systematic variation in the Canadian dollar is attributable to its sensitivity to commodity prices. We introduce a new “oil” portfolio that captures systematic variations when the exchange rates of commodity exporters and commodity importers move in opposite directions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies

• Repo Market Functioning when the Interest Rate Is Low or Negative

  Staff discussion paper 2017-3 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Hately, Adrian Walton

  This paper investigates how a low or negative overnight interest rate might affect the Canadian repo markets. The main conclusion is that the repo market for general collateral will continue to function effectively.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G10, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure

• What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty

  Staff working paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I

  Staff analytical note 2016-15 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin

  In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
• June 9, 2016

  Securities Financing and Bond Market Liquidity

  Financial System Review - June 2016 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Corey Garriott, Kyle Gray

  This report investigates how the markets for repurchase agreements and securities-lending agreements support the liquidity of Canadian bond markets. It also discusses how recent regulatory changes, as well as low interest rates and settlement failures, are potentially affecting securities-financing markets and, as a result, bond market liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2
• November 15, 2012

  Access, Competition and Risk in Centrally Cleared Markets

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2012 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Héctor Pérez Saiz, Joshua Slive

  Central counterparties can make over-the-counter markets more resilient and reduce systemic risk by mitigating and managing counterparty credit risk. These benefits are maximized when access to central counterparties is available to a wide range of market participants. In an over-the-counter market, there is an important trade-off between risk and competition. A model of an over-the-counter market shows how risk and competition could be influenced by the incentives of market participants as they move to central clearing. In a centrally cleared market, there may be less risk when participation is high. This helps to explain why regulators have put in place requirements for fair, open and risk-based access criteria.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G21, L, L1, L13