Greg Tkacz - Latest

• March 9, 2010

  An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Greg Tkacz

  Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy and uncertainty

• A Consistent Test for Multivariate Conditional Distributions

  Staff Working Paper 2009-34 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz

  We propose a new test for a multivariate parametric conditional distribution of a vector of variables y_t given a conditional vector x_t.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C2, C22
• December 21, 2008

  Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada

  Financial System Review - December 2008 Miroslav Misina, Pierre St-Amant, Greg Tkacz

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles

• Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2008-10 Miroslav Misina, Greg Tkacz

  Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G1, G10

• Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity

  Staff Working Paper 2007-58 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz

  Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E6, E66

• Gold Prices and Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2007-35 Greg Tkacz

  Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E44

• How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables

  Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz

  For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53

• Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2006-25 Greg Tkacz, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E4

• Quantity, Quality, and Relevance: Central Bank Research, 1990–2003

  Staff Working Paper 2005-37 Pierre St-Amant, Greg Tkacz, Annie Guérard-Langlois, Louis Morel

  The authors document the research output of 34 central banks from 1990 to 2003, and use proxies of research inputs to measure the research productivity of central banks over this period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research JEL Code(s): E, E5, E59

• Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium Framework

  Staff Working Paper 2004-9 Jean-Paul Lam, Greg Tkacz

  In an era when the primary policy instrument is the level of the short-term interest rate, a comparison of that rate with some equilibrium rate can be a useful guide for policy and a convenient method to measure the stance of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37