May 1, 1998
Information in Financial Asset Prices
Proceedings of a conference held by the Bank of Canada, May 1998 (proceedings volume, available in electronic format only)
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April 23, 1998
Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce
My colleagues and I look forward to our yearly appearance before your committee because it gives us an opportunity to present an account of how the Bank has worked to fulfil its objectives over the past year. It is also an opportunity for a discussion with you on a range of economic and monetary issues. […] -
Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism
An important challenge facing central banks is making decisions under uncertainty about the dynamic effects of monetary policy actions. The authors stress the importance of explicitly recognizing uncertainty about the transmission mechanism when formulating policy advice. They argue that one way to manage monetary policy under uncertainty is to draw on both an output-gap paradigm […] -
April 8, 1998
Second Discussion Paper Released on Government of Canada - Debt Auction Process
A second discussion paper outlining proposed changes in the rules for, and the surveillance of, auctions of Government of Canada securities was released for public comment today by the Bank of Canada. -
Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two
A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction model (VECM) developed by Hendry […] -
Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach
This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian […] -
The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Stock
This paper surveys the empirical literature on the benefits of low inflation, emphasizing contributions since 1990. It follows the framework of a section in the Bank's 1990 Annual Report, "The benefits of price stability." -
April 1, 1998
Bank of Canada Announces Appointment of Special Adviser
Professor David Laidler of the University of Western Ontario has been chosen to fill the newly-created visiting economist position of Special Adviser in the Bank of Canada for a one-year term beginning in August 1998. -
March 25, 1998
The Future Performance of the Canadian Economy
It can take anywhere from one to two years for monetary actions to have their full effect on the economy. Because of this, the conduct of monetary policy must be based on a view of what the economy will be like - not tomorrow, not in a month - but rather in one to two years' time. -
A Discussion of the Reliability of Results Obtained with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions
In a recent article, Faust and Leeper (1997) discuss reasons why inference from structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions may not be reliable. In this paper, the authors argue that there are reasons to believe that Faust and Leeper's arguments are not devastating in practice. First, simulation exercises suggest that this approach does well when […]