E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
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ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model
The authors provide a detailed technical description of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), which replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy. -
Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model
The authors estimate a small monthly macroeconometric model (BEAM, for bonds, equity, and money) of the Canadian economy built around three cointegrating relationships linking financial and real variables over the 1975–2002 period. -
An Optimized Monetary Policy Rule for ToTEM
The authors propose a monetary policy rule for the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), the Bank of Canada's new projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy. -
Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices
The authors examine simultaneously the causal links connecting monetary policy variables, real activity, and stock returns. -
Survey of Price-Setting Behaviour of Canadian Companies
In many mainstream macroeconomic models, sticky prices play an important role in explaining the effects of monetary policy on the economy. -
The Macroeconomic Effects of Non-Zero Trend Inflation
The authors study the macroeconomic effects of non-zero trend inflation in a simple dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with sticky prices. -
Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?
The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression. -
Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices
The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation. -
Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related?
The empirical relationship between the average growth rate and the volatility of growth rates, both over time and across countries, has important policy implications, which depend critically on the sign of the relationship.