E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

• Unanticipated Defaults and Losses in Canada's Large-Value Payments System, Revisited

  Staff Discussion Paper 2007-5 Devin Ball, Walter Engert

  Recent work at the Bank of Canada studied the impact of default in Canada’s large-value payments system, and concluded that participants could readily manage their potential losses (McVanel 2005). In an extension of that work, the authors use a much larger set of daily payments data – with three times as many observations – to […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, G, G2, G21

• The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for the Optimal Monetary Policy in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2007-1 Claude Lavoie, Hope Pioro

  The authors assess the performance of the Canadian economy under a variety of interest rate rules when the zero bound on nominal interest rates can bind. Their assessment is based on numerical simulations of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model in a stochastic environment. Consistent with the literature, the authors find that the probability and consequences […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, E5, E52

• Examining the Trade-Off between Settlement Delay and Intraday Liquidity in Canada's LVTS: A Simulation Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2006-20 Neville Arjani

  The author explores a fundamental trade-off that occurs between settlement delay and intraday liquidity in the daily operation of large-value payment systems (LVPS), with specific application to Canada's Large Value Transfer System (LVTS).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, G, G2, G21

• The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2005-36 René Garcia, Richard Luger

  The authors develop and estimate an equilibrium-based model of the Canadian term structure of interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, E5, E52

• The Impact of Unanticipated Defaults in Canada's Large Value Transfer System

  Staff Working Paper 2005-25 Darcey McVanel

  Canada's Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) is designed to meet international risk-proofing standards at a minimum cost to participants in terms of collateral requirements.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, G, G2, G21

• Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2002-30 David Andolfatto, Scott Hendry, Kevin Moran

  Various measures indicate that inflation expectations evolve sluggishly relative to actual inflation. In addition, they often fail conventional tests of unbiasedness.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, E5, E52, E58

• Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model

  Staff Working Paper 2001-23 Ying Liu

  This paper uses a smooth transition error-correction model (STECM) to model the one-year and five-year mortgage rate changes. The model allows for a non-linear adjustment process of mortgage rates towards their long-run equilibrium.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C4, C49, E, E4, E47