E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
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Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services
This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services. -
Uncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records. -
Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation
This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation. -
Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?
A regulator would want to restrict dividends to force banks to rebuild capital during a crisis. But such a policy is not time-consistent. A time-consistent policy would let banks gradually rebuild capital and pay dividends even when their equity remains below pre-crisis levels. -
The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions
A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings. -
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis
I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best. -
Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy
We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public. -
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation
We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms. -
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls
This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model.