Luis Uzeda - Bank Publications

• Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions

  Staff Working Paper 2020-16 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Luis Uzeda

  We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52

• State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models

  Staff Working Paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda

  Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53