Luis Uzeda - Bank Publications

• Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference

  Staff Working Paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak

  We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62

• The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-3 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, James (Jim) C. MacGee, Luis Uzeda

  The rise in inflation in 2021–22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

• Sectoral Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda

  We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C55, E, E3, E32, E4, E44

• Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors

  Staff Working Paper 2020-45 Yunjong Eo, Luis Uzeda, Benjamin Wong

  The goods and services sectors have experienced considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52

• Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions

  Staff Working Paper 2020-16 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Luis Uzeda

  We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52

• State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models

  Staff Working Paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda

  Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53