Bruno Feunou - Latest

• The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2020-19 Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap, Lai Xu

  We investigate the uncertainty around stock returns at different investment horizons. Since a return is either a loss or a gain, we categorize return uncertainty into these two components. Loss uncertainty is the uncertainty surrounding negative returns, and gain uncertainty is the uncertainty surrounding any future gain. Investment opportunities can be evaluated by looking at these components.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate?

  Staff Working Paper 2017-60 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jianjian Jin

  Specifications of the Federal Reserve target rate that have more realistic features mitigate in-sample over-fitting and are favored in the data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43

• Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2017-58 Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap, Lai Xi

  We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Risk-Neutral Moment-Based Estimation of Affine Option Pricing Models

  Staff Working Paper 2017-55 Bruno Feunou, Cédric Okou

  This paper provides a novel methodology for estimating option pricing models based on risk-neutral moments. We synthesize the distribution extracted from a panel of option prices and exploit linear relationships between risk-neutral cumulants and latent factors within the continuous time affine stochastic volatility framework.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Good Volatility, Bad Volatility and Option Pricing

  Staff Working Paper 2017-52 Bruno Feunou, Cédric Okou

  Advances in variance analysis permit the splitting of the total quadratic variation of a jump diffusion process into upside and downside components. Recent studies establish that this decomposition enhances volatility predictions, and highlight the upside/downside variance spread as a driver of the asymmetry in stock price distributions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity

  Staff Working Paper 2016-35 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon, Chayawat Ornthanalai

  We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12

• Tractable Term-Structure Models and the Zero Lower Bound

  Staff Working Paper 2015-46 Anh Le, Bruno Feunou, Christian Lundblad, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  We greatly expand the space of tractable term-structure models. We consider one example that combines positive yields with rich volatility and correlation dynamics. Bond prices are expressed in closed form and estimation is straightforward.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates, International financial markets, International topics, Transmission of monetary policy, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics

  Staff Working Paper 2015-39 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon

  Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity dynamics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Downside Variance Risk Premium

  Staff Working Paper 2015-36 Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Cédric Okou

  We decompose the variance risk premium into upside and downside variance risk premia. These components reflect market compensation for changes in good and bad uncertainties. Their difference is a measure of the skewness risk premium (SRP), which captures asymmetric views on favorable versus undesirable risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Fourier Inversion Formulas for Multiple-Asset Option Pricing

  Staff Working Paper 2015-11 Bruno Feunou, Ernest Tafolong

  Plain vanilla options have a single underlying asset and a single condition on the payoff at the expiration date. For this class of options, a well-known result of Duffie, Pan and Singleton (2000) shows how to invert the characteristic function to obtain a closed-form formula for their prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12