Staff research, Publications

• September 12, 2025

  The evolution of how we pay for things

  

  New technologies new payments possibilities. Learn more about how these innovations can make purchases easier, but also introduce new risks.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Cyber security, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Retail payments supervision

• Short-Run and Long-Run News: Evidence from Giant Commodity Discoveries

  Staff Working Paper 2025-24 Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Kirill Shakhnov, Laure Simon

  Our understanding of news shocks is, to a large extent, based on studies that focus empirically on short-run news. This paper brings new insights by analyzing the effects of giant commodity discoveries, which typically materialize over the longer run.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, F, F3, F4, Q, Q3, Q33

• Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2025-23 William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang

  Aggregate consumption impacts of heightened job risks during recessions can arise either from ex-ante responses to the fear of unemployment or from ex-post consumption declines due to realized income losses. We use survey-based perceptions of job risk and actual labor market transitions to quantify the relative contributions of these two channels. We further show that belief stickiness limits the extent of ex-ante insurance against job risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E2, E21, E7, E71, G, G5, G51
• August 22, 2025

  Quarterly Financial Report - Second Quarter 2025

  Quarterly Financial Report - Second Quarter 2025 - For the period ended June 30, 2025, unaudited

  Content Type(s): Publications, Quarterly Financial Report

• Dynamic Consumer Cash Inventory Model

  Staff Working Paper 2025-22 Kim Huynh, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel

  We study consumer cash inventory behavior by developing a dynamic model of forward-looking consumers and estimating structural parameters of the model using detailed consumer survey data. Consumers facing holding and withdrawal costs solve a discrete-time continuous-control dynamic programming problem to optimally use cash at the point of sale.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E41, E42, G, G2, G21

• Monetary Policy Transmission with Endogenous Central Bank Responses in TANK

  Staff Working Paper 2025-21 Lilia Maliar, Chris Naubert

  We study how the transmission of monetary policy innovations is affected by the endogenous response of the central bank to macroeconomic aggregates in a two-agent New Keynesian model. We focus on how the stance of monetary policy and the fraction of savers in the economy affect transmission.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C62, C63, E, E3, E31, E5, E52

• 2024 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: Cash in an Era of Alternatives

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-12 Marie-Hélène Felt, Anna Chernesky, Angelika Welte

  We present core findings from the 2024 Methods-of-Payment Survey, highlighting results from both the survey questionnaire and three-day shopping diary. Although cash holdings have increased in nominal terms, we find that cash usage remains unchanged since 2020. Mobile and other alternative payment methods continue to grow in importance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41

• Firm Heterogeneity and Adverse Selection in External Finance: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

  Staff Working Paper 2025-20 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Thomas Winberry, Toni Whited

  We develop a heterogeneous firm macro model with private information and quantify the aggregate relevance of asymmetric information. We find that a spike in private information account for 40% of the decline in aggregate investment during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and made monetary stimulus significantly less effective.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets, Firm dynamics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E5, E52, G, G3, G30
• August 13, 2025

  Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of July 30, 2025

  This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on July 30, 2025.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Summary of deliberations

• On-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access

  Staff Working Paper 2025-19 Fabienne Schneider

  The premium on “on-the-run” Treasuries is an anomaly. I explain it using a model in which primary dealers hold inventories of Treasuries. I use the model to analyze the effects of granting access to central bank facilities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G19, G2, G23