Research

• Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire

  Staff Working Paper 1998-23 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier

  Over the last few years, many countries have adopted inflation targets. The objective of this paper is to report some empirical results that bear on the link between the adoption of inflation targets and the behaviour of the main macroeconomic variables. After a discussion of some recent articles analyzing international experience, some simple statistical tests […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets

• A Non-Paradoxical Interpretation of the Gibson Paradox

  Staff Working Paper 1998-22 Serge Coulombe

  In this study, we show how, to yield the real cost of borrowing, the price level can be combined with the nominal interest rate in a monetary regime where the level of prices is trend stationary. We show that the price level then conveys intertemporal information in a way similar to nominal interest rates. We […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates

• Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne

  Staff Working Paper 1998-21 René Lalonde, Jennifer Page, Pierre St-Amant

  This study introduces a new method for identifying the output gap, based on the estimation of multivariate autoregression (VAR) models. This approach, which involves using restrictions to identify structural shocks that have only a transitory effect on output but that affect the trend inflation rate, is compared with the decomposition method proposed by Blanchard and […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers

• Evaluating Alternative Measures of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

  Staff Working Paper 1998-20 Robert Lafrance, Patrick Osakwe, Pierre St-Amant

  This paper discusses the merits and shortcomings of alternative price indices used in constructing real effective exchange rate indices and examines the effects of different weighting schemes. It also compares selected measures of the real effective exchange rate in terms of their ability to explain movements in Canadian net exports and real output. The paper […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers

• Can a Matching Model Explain the Long-Run Increase in Canada's Unemployment Rate?

  Staff Working Paper 1998-19 Andreas Hornstein, Mingwei Yuan

  The authors construct a simple general equilibrium model of unemployment and calibrate it to the Canadian economy. Job creation and destruction are endogenous. In this model, they consider several potential factors that could contribute to the long-run increase in the Canadian unempoloyment rate: a more generous unemployment insurance system, higher layoff costs, higher discretionary taxes, […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E6, J, J4

• The Sale of Durable Goods by a Monopolist in a Stochastic Environment

  Staff Working Paper 1998-18 Gabriel Srour

  This paper examines the sale of durable goods by a monopolist in a stochastic partil equilibrium setting. It analyzes the responses of prices and output to various types of shocks and notes the differences with non-durable goods and competitive markets. It shows that behavior in this model with constant marginal costs of production is in […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4

• La politique monétaire a-t-elle des effets asymétriques sur l'emploi?

  Staff Working Paper 1998-17 Lise Pichette

  Several economists, including Cover (1992), Ammer and Brunner (1995), Macklem, Paquet, and Phaneuf (1996), have worked over the past few years to determine whether monetary policy shocks have asymmetric effects on output. These authors have generally found that negative monetary shocks tend to reduce output growth significantly, and that positive shocks generally have a weaker […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5

• Consumer Attitudes, Uncertainty, and Consumer Spending

  Staff Working Paper 1998-16 Denise Côté, Marianne Johnson

  This study examines the link between consumer expenditures and the Conference Board's Index of Consumer Attitudes, an index highly regarded for some time as a useful leading indicator of consumer expenditures. However, the theory that identifies why it may be useful in an analysis of consumption is less well established. To explore this question, we […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2

• On the Believable Benefits of Low Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 1998-15 Christopher Ragan

  This paper reviews the existing theoretical and empirical literature addressing the benefits of low inflation. The ultimate goal is to arrive at a set of benefits in which a monetary authority can have genuine confidence. I argue that the current state of economic research—both empirical and theoretical—provides little basis for believing in significant observable benefits […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 1998-14 Chantal Dupasquier, Nicholas Ricketts

  This paper analyzes the short-run dynamic process of inflation in Canada and examines whether a systematic variation in the relationship between inflation and output can be detected over time. In the theoretical literature, different models of price-setting behaviour predict that the slope of the Phillips curve will be a function of macroeconomic conditions, implying a […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Productivity