May 7, 1995
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768
result(s)
Changes in the Inflation Process in Canada: Evidence and Implications
Staff Working Paper 1995-5
Doug Hostland
The Canadian economy is currently in transition from a period of disinflation to one with a very low and relatively stable inflation rate. Against this background, the author asks whether reduced-form parameters should be expected to be invariant to changes in the inflation process. This raises two empirical issues. The first relates to whether shifts […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
Government Debt and Deficits In Canada: A Macro Simulation Analysis
Staff Working Paper 1995-4
Tiff Macklem,
David Rose,
Robert Tetlow
This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of rising government debt in Canada and the short-run costs and long-run benefits of stemming the rise. The discussion begins with an evaluation of the long-run consequences of increasing government indebtedness, first based on the simple arithmetic of the government's long-run budget constraint, and then based on simulations of […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy
Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy
Staff Working Paper 1995-2
Alain DeSerres,
Alain Guay,
Pierre St-Amant
In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output
Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Staff Working Paper 1995-1
Christopher Ragan
In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates
Searching for the Liquidity Effect in Canada
Staff Working Paper 1994-12
Ben Fung,
Rohit Gupta
This paper examines the empirical evidence of the liquidity effect in Canada. In the presence of the liquidity effect, the initial impact of an unanticipated expansionary monetary policy is to lower nominal and real interest rates for a short period of time.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary aggregates
November 9, 1994
The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction
This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Economic models
The Causes of Unemployment in Canada: A Review of the Evidence
Staff Working Paper 1994-11
Stephen S. Poloz
This paper reviews various competing theories of structural unemployment and considers whether they may be used to explain any of the rise in unemployment experienced by Canada during the most recent economic cycle.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets
Les provinces canadiennes et la convergence : une évaluation empirique
Staff Working Paper 1994-10
Mario Lefebvre
This paper examines whether the hypothesis of economic convergence holds for the Canadian provinces. Using data on real gross domestic product per capita and on factor productivity from 1966 to 1992, the paper shows, using two different methods, that the convergence hypothesis cannot be rejected. This evidence supports the findings of other authors who have studied convergence among Canadian provinces.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Recent economic and financial developments
Symétrie des chocs touchant les régions canadiennes et choix d'un régime de change
Staff Working Paper 1994-9
Alain DeSerres,
René Lalonde
The authors attempt to determine whether the primary advantage of the flexible exchange rate between Canada and the United States—the rapid adjustment of the real exchange rate following an asymmetrical shock—is as evident at the regional as at the national level.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates