Fiscal policy

• High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti

  We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E30, E32, E6, E60, E62, E65