E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks
This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real-time information arrives at different frequencies and asynchronously, which poses challenges of mixed frequencies, missing data and ragged edges. -
Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model
The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.