I Am So Tired! I Don’t Know What to Do! Survey Fatigue and Financial Literacy: Results from a Randomized Experiment Staff working paper 2026-5 Anna Chernesky, Kim Huynh, Marcel Voia We use a randomization of question placement in surveys to estimate the causal effect on financial literacy results. We find that financial literacy questions placed at the end of a survey lead to a drop in financial literacy of 5%–15%. This research suggests a measure of financial literacy adapted for survey length. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83, D, D1, D12, G, G5, G53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Consumers’ Path to Mortgage Delinquency Staff analytical paper 2026-3 Laura Zhao, Jia Qi Xiao, Aidan Witts Analyzing TransUnion data from 2015–2024, this study identifies a systematic timeline of distress where rising credit utilization and non-mortgage arrears precede mortgage delinquency by up to two years. This deterioration intensifies in the final six months, providing a robust suite of high-frequency indicators for monitoring emerging household stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles Staff working paper 2025-23 William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang Aggregate consumption impacts of heightened job risks during recessions can arise either from ex-ante responses to the fear of unemployment or from ex-post consumption declines due to realized income losses. We use survey-based perceptions of job risk and actual labor market transitions to quantify the relative contributions of these two channels. We further show that belief stickiness limits the extent of ex-ante insurance against job risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E2, E21, E7, E71, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Dynamic Consumer Cash Inventory Model Staff working paper 2025-22 Kim Huynh, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel We study consumer cash inventory behavior by developing a dynamic model of forward-looking consumers and estimating structural parameters of the model using detailed consumer survey data. Consumers facing holding and withdrawal costs solve a discrete-time continuous-control dynamic programming problem to optimally use cash at the point of sale. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E41, E42, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes
Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations Staff discussion paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis Staff analytical note 2025-21 Claudia Godbout, Adam Su, Yang Xu We update an assessment of potential changes in payments that mortgage holders could face at renewal in 2025 and 2026. We use an enhanced dataset (RESL2) that provides a more accurate starting point for mortgage balances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2, R20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Incorporating Trip-Chaining to Measuring Canadians’ Access to Cash Staff working paper 2025-16 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao Our paper employs smartphone data to construct an improved cash access metric by accounting for both spatial agglomeration and households’ travel patterns. We find that incorporating trip-chaining into the travel metric could show that travel costs are from 15 to 25% less than not incorporating trip-chaining and that the biggest decrease is driven by rural residents. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, O, O1, O18, R, R2, R22, R4, R41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes
Estimating Discrete Choice Demand Models with Sparse Market-Product Shocks Staff working paper 2025-10 Zhentong Lu, Kenichi Shimizu We propose a novel approach to estimating consumer demand for differentiated products. We eliminate the need for instrumental variables by assuming demand shocks are sparse. Our empirical applications reveal strong evidence of sparsity in real-world datasets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, D, D1, L, L0, L00 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Using new loan data to better understand mortgage holders Staff analytical note 2025-1 Odae Al Aboud, Saarah Sheikh, Adam Su, Yang Xu The Bank of Canada is using an enhanced dataset that tracks the stock of outstanding mortgages and home equity lines of credit held by federally regulated lenders. This paper highlights some of the new details in the dataset and how they impact the Bank’s understanding of the mortgage market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
CBDC in the Market for Payments at the Point of Sale: Equilibrium Impact and Incumbent Responses Staff working paper 2024-52 Walter Engert, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel We simulate introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and consider consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and usage at the point of sale. Modest adoption frictions significantly inhibit CBDC market penetration along all three dimensions. Incumbent responses to restore pre-CBDC market shares are moderate to small and further reduce the impact of a CBDC. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments