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Using turnover ratios, Anderson and Lavoie describe the recent evolution of liquidity in various secondary government bond markets, focusing specifically on the market for Government of Canada securities. They attribute much of the recent variation in liquidity to such cyclical factors as changes in the interest rate environment and investors' appetite for risk, as well as developments in equity markets in the late 1990s. They also examine longer-term structural and policy-related trends, including the rate of adoption of financial and technological innovations and the level of government borrowing and debt-management initiatives.

In a recent speech, Deputy Governor Sheryl Kennedy discusses how the efficiency of Canada's capital markets compares in a global context. Taking into account the three inter-related aspects of an efficient market (allocational, operational, and informational efficiency), Kennedy reviews the recent performance of Canadian capital markets under such headings as size, completeness, and access to capital and the instruments needed to hedge, or distribute, risk (allocational efficiency). To assess operational efficiency, she considers Canadian markets' liquidity and whether their transactional costs are competitive. Finally, she reviews transparency and market integrity (and how integrity is maintained) to determine markets' informational efficiency. She also offers several suggestions as to how Canadian markets can continue to be improve and maintain their competitiveness.

Counterfeiting poses a significant public policy issue because of the important role that paper money plays in Canada's payments system. Yet the threat of counterfeiting in all economies has increased markedly in the past decade as a result of technological advances to photocopiers and computer printers. An appropriate public policy response is thus necessary to maintain the public's continued confidence in the national currency. To assess the threat from counterfeiting, including possible loss of confidence in the currency, estimating the stock of counterfeits circulating is necessary. In this article, Chant proposes a composite method of detecting counterfeits as an effective alternative to existing methods and offers estimates of the extent of counterfeiting Canadian currency for 2001. An Addendum to the article summarizes Chant's methods and updates the calculations to 2003.

Three recipients, Detective Carmine Palermo, Detective Constable Thomas Hancock, and Detective Constable Harjit Sangha, of the Toronto Police Service (TPS) Fraud Squad, have been selected for their impressive initiative and creative work on "Project Greenback". This project resulted in the seizure of approximately $3 million in counterfeit bank notes, as well as the successful dismantling of multiple counterfeit production facilities in the Toronto area.

Canada's new $20 bank note will be unveiled on Wednesday, 25 August 2004, in Vancouver, British Columbia. The new $20 bank note celebrates Canadian arts and culture and features the work of Bill Reid, one of Canada's most accomplished artists.

The Bank of Canada today announced plans to support the development of a new publication focused on central bank theory and practice and issued a call for research papers. The International Journal of Central Banking (IJCB) will be a joint project of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the European Central Bank, and each of the Group of Ten (G-10) central banks, with participation expected from other central banks.

Since the April Monetary Policy Report, three developments have led the Bank of Canada to make small modifications to its outlook for economic growth and inflation in Canada.

The Bank of Canada today released its Update to the April Monetary Policy Report. The Update discusses current economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy.

Let me start with our outlook for inflation. Higher-than-expected world oil prices mean that total CPI inflation is likely to remain above 2 per cent through the rest of this year, before falling slightly below core inflation in the second half of 2005.

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 2 1/4 per cent.