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62 Results

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output

Staff Working Paper 2003-44 Francisco Barillas, Christoph Schleicher
The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions.

Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada?

Staff Working Paper 2003-30 Lise Pichette, Dominique Tremblay
The authors examine the link between consumption and disaggregate wealth in Canada. They use a vector-error-correction model in which permanent and transitory shocks are identified using the restrictions implied by cointegration proposed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21

Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépenses des ménages américains

Staff Working Paper 2003-13 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde
Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs.

Shift Contagion in Asset Markets

Staff Working Paper 2003-5 Toni Gravelle, Maral Kichian, James Morley
The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called "shift contagion."

Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2001-18 Marc-André Gosselin, Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.

GAUSS™ Programs for the Estimation of State-Space Models with ARCH Errors: A User's Guide

Staff Working Paper 2000-2 Maral Kichian
State-space models have long been popular in explaining the evolution of various economic variables. This is mainly because they generally have more economic content than do others in their class of parsimonious models (for example, VARs). Yet, in spite of their advantages, use of these models until recently was limited by the assumption that all […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C8, C82, C87, C89
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